Course syllabus

Economics, Macroeconomic Forecasting, Second Cycle, 7.5 credits

Course code: NA437A Credits: 7.5
Main field of study: Economics Progression: A1N
    Last revised: 12/03/2020
Education cycle: Second cycle Approved by: Head of school
Established: 01/11/2019 Reading list approved: 12/03/2020
Valid from: Autumn semester 2020 Revision: 1

Aims and objectives

General aims for second cycle education

Second-cycle courses and study programmes shall involve the acquisition of specialist knowledge, competence and skills in relation to first-cycle courses and study programmes, and in addition to the requirements for first-cycle courses and study programmes shall

  • further develop the ability of students to integrate and make autonomous use of their knowledge
  • develop the students' ability to deal with complex phenomena, issues and situations, and
  • develop the students' potential for professional activities that demand considerable autonomy, or for research and development work.

(Higher Education Act, Chapter 1, Section 9)

Course objectives

Upon completion of the course, the students are expected to

  • show broad knowledge concerning forecasting within the main fields of the course
  • be able to discuss central problems regarding modelling, forecasting and forecast evaluation
  • be able to derive essential properties of fundamental models
  • within the assigned time be able to conduct empirical analysis of economic data based on relevant quantitative methods and motivate the choices of both data and methods and
  • be able to discuss, with a scientific approach, questions within the field of macroeconomic forecasting.

Main content of the course

During the course, the students will work with relevant tools within the field of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is on objective methods based on statistical models and concepts. This includes:

  • ARIMA modelling
  • VAR models
  • Cointegration
  • Point, interval and density forecasts
  • Forecast evaluation

Seeing that macroeconomic forecasts in practice rarely are based on objective methods alone, the topic of judgemental forecasting will also be covered.

Teaching methods

Teaching is in form of lectures and computer laboration.

Students who have been admitted to and registered on a course have the right to receive tuition and/or supervision for the duration of the time period specified for the particular course to which they were accepted (see, the university's admission regulations (in Swedish)). After that, the right to receive tuition and/or supervision expires.

Examination methods

Written Examination, 5 credits (Code: A001)
Written individual examination.

Assignments, 2.5 credits (Code: A002)
Written individual assignments.


For students with a documented disability, the university may approve applications for adapted or other forms of examinations.

For further information, see the university's local examination regulations (in Swedish).

Grades

According to the Higher Education Ordinance, Chapter 6, Section 18, a grade is to be awarded on the completion of a course, unless otherwise prescribed by the university. The university may prescribe which grading system shall apply. The grade is to be determined by a teacher specifically appointed by the university (an examiner).

In accordance with university regulations regarding grading systems for first and second-cycle courses (Vice-Chancellor’s decision ORU 2018/00929), one of the following grades shall be used: Fail (U), Pass (G) or Pass with Distinction (VG). For courses that are included in an international Master’s programme (60 or 120 credits) or offered to the university’s incoming exchange students, the grading scale of A-F shall be used. The vice-chancellor, or a person appointed by the vice-chancellor, may decide on exceptions from this provision for a specific course, if there are special grounds.

Grades used on course are Fail (F), Sufficient (E), Satisfactory (D), Good (C), Very Good (B) or Excellent (A).

Written Examination
Grades used are Fail (F), Sufficient (E), Satisfactory (D), Good (C), Very Good (B) or Excellent (A).

Assignments
Grades used are Fail (F), Sufficient (E), Satisfactory (D), Good (C), Very Good (B) or Excellent (A).

For further information, see the university's local examination regulations (in Swedish).

Comments on grades

To obtain a passing grade for the course as a whole, a minimum of grade E is required for all components on the course. To arrive at a course grade, the grades awarded for each examination assignment, grades A-E, are first converted to the numerical values 5-1. An average value is then calculated, also taking into account the number of credits for each examination assignment in relation to the total number of credits for the course. The course grade is thus awarded by means of a weighted average of the examination assignments included on the course.

Specific entry requirements

75 credits of economics courses on the first cycle, as well as Statistics, Basic Course, 15 credits. Alternatively 75 credits of business administration courses on the first cycle, as well as Statistics, Basic Course, 15 credits, and Economics, Basic Course, 30 credits. Alternatively 75 credits of statistics courses on the first cycle, as well as Economics, Basic Course, 30 credits. In addition, the applicant must have completed an independent project of 15 credits in the main field of study as well as Statistics, Econometrics, Intermediate Course, 7.5 credits, and Statistics, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Intermediate Course, 7.5 credits or Economics, Financial econometrics 15 credits. The applicant must also have qualifications corresponding to the course "English 6"/"English B" from the Swedish Upper Secondary School.

For further information, see the university's admission regulations (in Swedish).

Transfer of credits for previous studies

Students who have previously completed higher education or other activities are, in accordance with the Higher Education Ordinance, entitled to have these credited towards the current programme, providing that the previous studies or activities meet certain criteria.

For further information, see the university's local credit transfer regulations (in Swedish).

Other provisions

The course will be given in English.

Reading list and other teaching materials

Required Reading

Diebold, Francis X. (4th edition)
Elements of Forecasting

Additions and Comments

Apart from the main textbook, a number of articles and other material will be used during the course. These will be specified in the course instructions.